Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2019
The horses are all in Louisville. The draw has been made, and the morning line is set. Now all we can do is wait until post time of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday. In the meantime, we can start to think about how to bet on the race and how to make sense of what is a very deep and wide-open race.
One good exercise to do at this point in the week is to look at who the best bet is based on the morning line odds. This isn't necessarily the most likely winner, but the horse that best offers value in their price. Last year, for example, I was very confident that Justify was the top pick, that he was most likely to win, and that he would be my strong choice in the race. But when I did this exercise looking for the best bet on the Kentucky Derby, he was the first horse I ruled out. He was a 2/1 at the time, and though his price climbed nicely to almost 3/1 by post time, it was hard to embrace a price that low in a 20-horse field for a colt who had run only three times. He was a freak, but not a value-packed one.
The best bet in my eyes, in terms of value, was Good Magic at 8/1 at the time. He wound up second at almost 10/1, completing a very nice exacta - at least considering that the horse that won was everyone's pick. So, which horse stands out as the best bet this year? It's a tough question:
It's not:
With less than three months to go until the May 2 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs, Nadal and Tiz the Law look to be among the early favorites. Best bet on the Kentucky Derby in 2019 with expert analysis by Docsports.com. The 2021 Kentucky Derby will be held at Churchill Downs on Saturday, May 1st. Future Pools for the Kentucky Derby will be open on the.
Omaha Beach (4/1): The colt is predictably and deservedly the favorite, having won three straight, including two in a row under Mike Smith. And the fact that Smith chose this ride over that of Santa Anita Derby winner Roadster - trained by Smith's Triple Crown partner and Triple Crown race savant Bob Baffert - is a major endorsement. But in a race as wide-open as this one , I would have to be opposed to any favorite at this kind of price regardless of who it was. The colt drew the 12 hole, which isn't necessarily ideal and hasn't produced a lot of winners. He doesn't have any clear early speed outside of him, so the trip is likely to be better than it could be, but he still has a lot of ground to cover early on. And he has made only two stakes starts, and both have come on the same Oaklawn Park track, so he isn't hugely proven. I like the colt, and I respect his chances, but there is no value in this price.
Game Winner (5/1): I am a huge Bob Baffert guy, so all three of his horses are going to figure prominently into my selections and bets. But while both American Pharoah and Nyquist, in 2015 and 2016, respectively, won the Derby after claiming Two-Year-Old Champion honors, that has not been the trend for this award. More often, winners have been good at three, but not as good as they were. And so far, that has been the case for Game Winner . He has looked good in both of his races, and he has certainly not embarrassed himself in any way, but he also hasn't won either race, and he has been edged in both cases by horses he is facing again here. He's also a horse that would be best set up by a fairly aggressive early pace, and I'm not certain that is going to happen here . I really like the horse, and I will bet him, but the value isn't here at this price.
Roadster (6/1): He's the top Baffert horse in my eyes, and I will be all over him. But the biggest thing he has going against him is that the 17 hole has never produced a winner of this race. He doesn't need to be near the lead, and that certainly helps him, but the draw didn't do anything to add to his value.
Best bet:
Tacitus (10/1): In the love affair with Omaha Beach and the three Baffert horses - attention they all deserve - Tacitus has been a relatively forgotten horse. In different circumstances he would get a lot more love - and he would earn it. He has been nothing but professional in two stakes wins against pretty strong fields. Jose Ortiz, among the best riders out there right now, chose this colt among several options, including Improbable. He is bred to run forever. He doesn't need the lead or anything close to it and isn't particularly dependent on pace to set up his race. He breaks from the eight hole, which is a pretty good spot to be in this race. The connections are strong beyond Ortiz - trainer Bill Mott is a master, and owner and breeder Juddmonte Farms have been named the nation's top owner four times and top breeder five times. If this colt goes off anywhere near this price - and there is a good chance he'll rise above it by post time - then there is definite value here. He may not be as likely a winner as Omaha Beach, but if you think his chances of winning are 2.5 times worse - as the odds suggest - then you are watching something different than I am.
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LOUISVILLE, KY – With the Kentucky Derby still 23 weeks away, the pari-mutuel field of “All Other 3-Year-Old Colts and Geldings” closed as the 6-5 favorite in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) and the Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Game Winner was the clear 5-1 second choice.
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2021
Other horses that attracted the most interest from bettors were impressive debut winner Coliseum (10-1), unbeaten Best Pal (GII) winner Instagrand (10-1), Street Sense winner Improbable (17-1) and Champagne (GI) runner-up Code of Honor (18-1). Game Winner, Coliseum and Improbable are trained by five-time Kentucky Derby-winner Bob Baffert.
| # | HORSE NAME | ML ODDS | FINAL ODDS | GROSS WIN POOL | FINAL $ ODDS | $2 PAYOFF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Theorem | 50 | 54 | $4,230.00 | 54.40 | $110.80 |
| 2 | Anneau d’Or | 20 | 31 | $7,208.00 | 31.50 | $65.00 |
| 3 | Answer In | 50 | 64 | $3,588.00 | 64.30 | $130.60 |
| 4 | Authentic | 20 | 50 | $4,528.00 | 50.80 | $103.60 |
| 5 | Basin | 15 | 38 | $5,941.00 | 38.40 | $78.80 |
| 6 | Dennis’ Moment | 15 | 12 | $17,985.00 | 12.00 | $26.00 |
| 7 | Eight Rings | 15 | 24 | $9,290.00 | 24.20 | $50.40 |
| 8 | Gouverneur Morris | 20 | 29 | $7,629.00 | 29.70 | $61.40 |
| 9 | Great Power | 50 | 60 | $3,808.00 | 60.50 | $123.00 |
| 10 | Green Light Go | 50 | 46 | $4,971.00 | 46.10 | $94.20 |
| 11 | High Velocity | 20 | 40 | $5,672.00 | 40.30 | $82.60 |
| 12 | Honor A. P. | 20 | 25 | $8,952.00 | 25.20 | $52.40 |
| 13 | Independence Hall | 12 | 13 | $15,796.00 | 13.80 | $29.60 |
| 14 | Maxfield | 15 | 13 | $16,560.00 | 13.10 | $28.20 |
| 15 | Scabbard | 50 | 85 | $2,705.00 | 85.70 | $173.40 |
| 16 | South Bend | 30 | 72 | $3,178.00 | 72.80 | $147.60 |
| 17 | Storm the Court | 12 | 41 | $5,544.00 | 41.30 | $84.60 |
| 18 | Structor | 20 | 24 | $9,032.00 | 24.90 | $51.80 |
| 19 | Thousand Words | 15 | 34 | $6,672.00 | 34.10 | $70.20 |
| 20 | Three Technique | 50 | 39 | $5,743.00 | 39.80 | $81.60 |
| 21 | Tiz the Law | 20 | 11 | $18,126.00 | 11.90 | $25.80 |
| 22 | Wrecking Crew | 50 | 86 | $2,680.00 | 86.50 | $175.00 |
| 23 | All 3-Year-Old Fillies | 30 | 57 | $4,000.00 | 57.60 | $117.20 |
| 24 | Mutuel Field (All Others) | 6-5 | 1 | $110,479.00 | 1.10 | $4.20 |
Total handle for the Nov. 22-25 KDFW pool – the first of four scheduled wagering pools in advance of the 145th running of the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) on Saturday, May 4 – was $258,389 ($186,470 in the Win pool and $71,919 in Exactas), which was a 3.2% increase from last year’s $250,259 ($177,103 in the Win pool and $73,156 in Exactas).
This year’s early Derby betting menu also included the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager, which, for the fourth consecutive year, provided bettors with a unique opportunity to wager on select breeding stars and their entire crop of juveniles with the hope of winning next year’s Kentucky Derby.
“All Other Sires” and Tapitattracted the most attention from bettors. “All Other Sires” closed as the 9-2 favorite, while and Tapit, the sire of Coliseum and Magic On Tap, was 6-1. Also, close behind were Candy Ride (ARG), the sire of Game Winner and Nashua (GIII) victor Vekoma, and Into Mischief, sire of Instagrand and unbeaten Maximus Mischief, who both closed at odds of 7-1.
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2019 Full
To see the results of the Kentucky Derby Sire Future Wager field (with breeding farm and morning line odds), or for more information on all the Kentucky Derby Future Wagers, visit the Racing Dudes’ page HERE, or at https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager.
Kentucky Derby Future Pool 2020
Source: Churchill Downs